EventA Spark Climate Solutions study published in *Environmental Research Letters* is the first to combine permafrost, wetlands, wildfires and freshwater emissions into a single forecast. It estimates these emissions could add 0.2‑0.4 °C extra warming by 2100—20‑30 % more than human‑caused warming since 2020. Most IPCC models omit such feedbacks, and the authors are preparing the results for inclusion in the next 2029 IPCC assessment.
A new study finds natural Arctic systems—permafrost, wetlands, freshwater bodies, and wildfires—could add 0.2‑0.4 °C of warming by 2100, amplifying human‑caused heat 20‑30% and indicating current climate models and carbon budgets may underestimate impacts.
A new study estimates that thawing permafrost, wetlands, wildfires, and freshwaters could add 0.2‑0.4 °C of additional warming by 2100, amplifying human‑caused warming by 20‑30% and highlighting that most climate models overlook these natural feedbacks.
The article argues that permafrost thaw poses severe risks to Arctic infrastructure, carbon dynamics, and mercury contamination, and proposes a focused Arctic Council initiative to address these challenges during Denmark’s chairship.
